By Paulo Moretti
Most manufacturing industries consume chemicals or plastics as raw materials or auxiliary materials in their production plants. To simplify this discussion, I will refer to chemicals and plastics together as chemicals.
Since 2012, the peak year for oil prices, Crude Oil prices have fallen, and all chemicals users have enjoyed lower prices for Crude Oil derivatives. However, I believe this scenario will change in 2016 and 2017. In parallel fashion, Natural Gas prices have also fallen during same period, as shown in the graph below. This is important to note as both feedstocks drive price movements for chemicals.
Please click on image to enlarge for better viewing.
Although several chemicals can be produced from Crude Oil or Natural Gas, most chemicals pricing follows Crude Oil prices. For example, Ethylene can be produced from Crude Oil or Natural Gas but follows Crude Oil prices, so producers of Ethylene using Natural Gas (at a lower price) enjoy a higher margin when Crude prices are high.
There are competing theories about the reasons for the Crude Oil price decline. Some conspiracy theorists believe the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) wants to financially restrict Iran and ISIS, which are both financed by oil exports. Others believe that OPEC wants to decrease the global oil inventory so the price will increase easily. My own view is that global oil prices declined in order to delay Shale Gas (mainly in the U.S.) investments and further production. Note: Shale Gas is Natural Gas in a different formation, which is cheaper than Crude.
Any financial analyst of commodities or chemical specialist or, in fact, any person at large may try to predict the future. It is only after the fact, however, that we can realize who was right! So, I will give my view.
My first prediction concerns the chemicals industry in the U.S. This industry reported US$1,041 billion in revenue in 2014, and I believe it will reach US$1,400 billion in 2020, through a combination of price and volume increases.
My second prediction is related to Crude Oil. My view is that the Crude Oil price will reach an average of US$50/BBL in 2016 and US$60/BBL in 2017. As we all know, supply-demand balance defines the price, and in May, Bloomberg reported that OPEC ministers were “happy with the direction of the oil market” to “eradicate surplus production.” A second indication is the tremendous financial impact on the oil exporters. A recent Deloitte article provides a clear view of the impact on the budgets of oil exporters, showing they need a certain level of oil price in order to balance their internal budgets. Russia, for example, is heavily dependent on its oil revenues, with Oil and Gas accounting for 70% of total export revenues. The country loses about $2 billion in revenue for every dollar fall in the oil price. The only oil exporter with high levels of monetary reserve to support this pricing environment is Saudi Arabia, and all others are struggling.
Assuming the oil prices as shown below, with Natural Gas around US$2.70/mmBTU, we may predict the following impact on Ethylene and Propylene.
Pleae click on the image to enlarge for better viewing.
The above predictions are based on statistical correlation analysis over the last 10 years.
Let us be very clear that the prices of Ethylene and Propylene are driven by the feedstock but also by the supply-demand balance of each one, as well as other derivatives. For example, Ethylene pricing depends on demand for middle-distillate products like gasoline, diesel, and heating oil. Additionally, propane pricing represents a ceiling price for Ethane. As result of all these drivers, Ethylene and Propylene prices have presented a delta (Propylene less Ethylene) between -$5 in 2000 to +$20 in 2011. Therefore, the prices may fluctuate much more than shown here.
There are several different chemicals, and the cost of each is driven by its feedstock as well as the supply-demand balance in that region. With that understanding, one approach would be to look at long-term historical data plus the delta range between the chemical and their feedstock and then relate these to the historical Crude Oil price. This would give an indication of how much your prices may increase.
For now, I propose you check these prices at the end of 2017 to see if I was right. If not, sorry; I just gave my view.
Taking Purchasing to the next level,
Download a PDF of this article, Chemicals Price Forecasting
Also see the My Purchasing Center article by Paulo Moretti, Purchasing Risk Management Tool
Paulo Moretti is Principal at PM2Consult.com, a boutique consulting company focused on excellence in the purchasing function for manufacturing industries and market analysis of Chemicals & Plastics industries.
Prior to becoming Principal, he was Senior Consultant at Vantage Partners, and worked 35 years at The Dow Chemical Company, where he developed experience in such diverse areas as Manufacturing, R&D, Sales, Marketing, Finance, Strategic Planning, e-Business, and Purchasing.
A native of Brazil now based in the U.S., Moretti holds a Bachelor’s degree in Chemistry and Chemical Engineering, with Master’s degrees in Industrial Management and in Business and executive course certifications from Kellogg, Wharton, and MIT Sloan.
George E. Krauter
When one defines third-party MRO (3PMRO) success, one assumes that fundamental operations are being executed and that expectations are being met (i.e., ROI goals are surpassed} Read More
The US Labor Department reported in March of this year that there were 6.6 million job openings, a record high. Although most of us applaud these numbers Read More
Millennials working in the supply chain management field don’t fit the mold that the older generation assumes for them. APQC’s recent study Read More
Staples Advantage is the one supplier that offers all the business solutions you need, all with the expertise of a specialty vendor. Read More
It started in 1972 with an idea, a new concept in distribution. Today, Digi-Key Corporation is one of the fastest-growing electronic component distributors in the World. The stimulus for this growth is Digi-Key's customer-centered business philosophy… Read More
Procurement and supply management leaders have a seat at the table, and management’s expectations are high. But what do CEOs really want, and is purchasing delivering on these expectations? This webcast looks at how procurement and supply management … Read More
At world-class companies, purchasing’s influence touches just about every area of spending. But, how exactly do procurement teams get to the point where other departments approach them for help with sourcing such indirect categories as human resource… Read More